The economic headlines this morning were led by the monthly GDP figures which showed an unexpected decline of -0.1% for October, with growth of just +0.1% over the past 3 months (compared to the previous period). The service sector was unchanged compared to September, with a fall in output for both the manufacturing and construction sectors.
We have a separate item for the manufacturing sector, so this note will cover the other two major sectors of the economy. The largest is, of course, the service sector which we have already noted was unchanged compared to September and has only grown by +0.1% over the past three months.
Taking the rolling 3-month periods, the most significant positive contribution compared to the previous period came from “professional, scientific & technical activities”, with “education” also having notable increase. The largest negative contribution on this basis came from “administrative & support service activities”. Output of the sub-group of services that are designated as “consumer-facing” showed growth of +0.4% compared to the previous 3 months, led by the “retail trade, except of motor vehicles & motorcycles industry”, partially offset by decreases in “food & beverage service activities” and the “travel agency, tour operator & other reservation service activities & related activities.
Although construction output fell in October, this sector has grown by +0.4% in the 3 months to October (compared with the equivalent period to July). This was due to an increase of +1.7% in new work, with infrastructure making the largest contribution to this; in contrast, repair & maintenance activity fell by -1.2% over this period, with private housing repair & maintenance the weakest element of this group.
There are more details in the range of ONS Statistical Bulletins which can be downloaded from their website at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (13 December) or on request from MTA.