Data on manufacturing output from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests a poor start to the new year for this sector with output falling by -0.9% both compared to December 2024 and for the 3-month period up to January 2025. This was the 5th month-on-month decline in the past 7 months with only August and December seeing any growth.
In January, 9 of the 13 subsectors saw a fall in output with the largest negative contributions coming from “basic metals & metal products”, “other manufacturing & repair” and “basic pharmaceutical products”.
In the rest of this note, we will use the 3-month rolling trends as they take out some of the noise in the monthly data. References to these periods will cover November and December 2024 and January 2025 as the latest 3 months, the previous period is August, September and October 2024 and “last year” is November and December 2023 and January 2024.
At the sub-sector level, the capital (or investment) goods industries saw output fall by -1.2% compared to the previous period and it was -1.7% lower than last year.
There was a mixed picture for our key industries, at least for the comparison with the previous 3-month block with output of machinery growing by +1.2% and an expansion of +0.3% for aerospace, contrasting with declines of -4.4% for the automotive industry and -1.9% for metal products.
Looking back to the equivalent period last year gives a gloomier picture with output falling in all 4 industries. This was led by the decline of -5.8% for the automotive industry, closely followed by the reduction of -4.7% in aerospace, although it is worth noting that “repair & maintenance of aircraft & spacecraft” grew by +3.4% – this may reflect the issue that some OEMs are having with longevity of their products. This picture is completed by noting the falls of -1.5% in output of the metal products industry and -1.2% for machinery.
You can download the ONS Statistical Bulletin from their web-site at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (14 March) or request it from MTA; we also have an analysis of the key industries which is available to members – please contact Geoff Noon (geoff.noon@mta.org.uk) if you would like these charts.