Total orders for Japanese manufacturers of metal cutting machine tools showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of +5% in the 2nd quarter. This came entirely from export demand which grew by +8% (to account for 70% of the total), while domestic business was broadly unchanged from the Q1-24 figure.
The Japan Machine Tool Builders Association (JMTBA) also publish monthly orders data, although in this case, it covers total business done by Japanese manufacturers rather than in the Japanese market; also, it only covers those who build metal cutting machine tools (there is a separate association in Japan for manufacturers of metal forming machines). However, given the relatively low import ratio in Japan, the domestic orders series will be a good guide to the market situation.
Total orders in the 2nd quarter of 2024 quarter were +5% higher than in the previous period and +1% up on a year earlier. The total for the first half of the year is -4% down on the same months (January to June) in 2023 and the rolling 12-month total is -10% lower than in the period from July 2022 to June 2023.
Domestic orders were broadly the same as in Q1-24 but were -7% lower than in the 2nd period of 2023 (a year earlier); the year-to-date trend shows a fall of -11% and the rolling 12-month figures is down by -17%. The picture is better for export orders which were +8% higher than in the 1st quarter of this year and +5% up on a year earlier; however, the longer term view is weaker with the year-to-date total for the first half of the year unchanged from the same point in 2023 and the rolling 12-month trend down by -6%.
The JMTBA report gives a breakdown of the domestic orders by industry and using the comparison between the first halves of 2024 and 2023, the only sectors to grow were precision machinery (+8%) and automotive (+3%); the largest reductions were for mould & die customer (-45%). The largest customer sector by value is industrial machinery (a very wide ranging sector that includes many product groups including construction machinery and mould & die companies); this saw orders fall by -21% on the same basis.
Analysis of export orders for the 1st half of 2024 shows a fall of -11% in shipments to the UK and -10% for deliveries to the EU. The strongest growth in exports on this basis was to Mexico (+34%) and Thailand (+33%). The four largest single-country markets for Japanese manufacturers of metal cutting machine tools are China (which accounted for 31% of the total in H1-24 and +3% higher than in H1-23), USA (26% and down by -5%), India (5% and +20% higher) and Germany (also 5% but down by -18%).
You can access the JMTBA report at https://www.jmtba.or.jp/english/category/machine-tool-orders/ (Jul. 30, 2024) or we can send you the summary of the data – contact Geoff Noon at MTA (email: [email protected]) if you want this analysis. A chart showing the 12-month rolling totals is available to download below.