European Industrial Production (IP) fell by -2.0% compared to August for both the EU and the Euro-zone, although this does follow a smaller but still significant increase in August; while the often-volatile Irish figures are part of the story, there were also significant declines in Germany and Italy. Compared to September 2023, total IP fell by -2.4% in the EU and -2.8% for the Euro-zone.
The data published by Eurostat uses Industrial Production rather than manufacturing (for which it does not provide a breakdown) so it is not directly equivalent the same as the UK figures at this level, although the figures for capital goods are directly comparable. Manufacturing makes up the largest part of IP but it also includes output of energy.
For total IP, the latest results suggest a possible issue with the seasonal adjustment to the data although, given that the September level puts us back on the gentle but persistent downward trend that has been running since April, it is likely that it was the August figure that is the outlier.
At the sub-sector level, in the month-on-month data, capital goods was the weakest of the sub-sectors of IP with a fall of -3.2% in the EU and -3.8% for the Euro-zone. This was also the case when comparing with September 2023 where output was down by -5.6% and -6.4% respectively. On both comparisons, the strongest of the sub-sectors was non-durable consumer goods.
Staying with the 12-month trends, of the 27 Member States, total IP increased in 14 and fell in 13. The largest percentage falls in total IP were in Ireland (-7.3%) – note that Ireland is often volatile and had double-digit percentage rises in July and August – Luxembourg (-6.3%) and Hungary (-5.3%); the most significant increases in IP were in Denmark (+7.8%), Belgium (+6.0%) and Lithuania (+3.5%).
You can get the Eurostat figures from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators (14 November) or request it from MTA.