Eurostat reports that total industrial production (IP) in the EU was +0.3% higher than in September but was unchanged for the Euro-zone;  this stabilization follows sharp declines in the previous month.  Compared to a year earlier (October 2023), total IP fell by -0.8% in the EU and by -1.2% in the Euro-zone.

Eurostat publishes its output data using industrial production and, while manufacturing makes up the bulk of this, it also includes the extraction, energy production and utilities industries.  Unfortunately, they don’t provide a breakdown of IP that includes manufacturing.

Monthly data can be volatile but there is further evidence of the situation stabilizing if we look at the 3-month rolling trend.  Total IP in the latest period (August, September and October 2024) compared to the previous 3 month (May, June and July 2024) was unchanged in the EU and fell by just -0.1% in the Euro-zone on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis.

There is some good news beyond the headlines in that for the month-on-month trend, the strongest sub-sector was capital (or investment) goods where output increased by +1.7% for both the EU and the Euro-zone.  That is where the good news ends as compared to October 2023 shows a fall in output for capital goods of -1.7% for both areas, although it should be noted that this was among the least weak results for this measure.

Continuing with the 12-month comparison, 11 of the EU Member States saw an increase in total IP and 16 registered a declines.  Top of the list for growth was Ireland – +5.7% for the month-on-month trend and +15.2% higher than a year earlier – but this is largely driven by the European headquarters operations of foreign owned companies which often distorts the true picture as the turnover does not reflect activity in the Irish manufacturing sector.  Excluding Ireland, the fastest growth in total IP compared to October 2023 was in Denmark (+8.6%), Malta (+6.2%) and Cyprus (+3.8%), while the largest reductions were seen in Belgium (-7.9%), Germany (-4.9%) and Italy (-3.6%).

You can get the full details from the Eurostat News Release which can be downloaded from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/euro-indicators (13 December) or requested from MTA.

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