European Industrial Production, March 2024: The latest monthly data from Eurostat shows that, compared to February, total industrial production (IP) grew by +0.2% for the EU but by +0.6% for the sub-set which is the Euro-zone countries. Looking back 12 months to March 2023, total IP grew by +1.0% for both the EU and the Euro-zone. It is worth noting, however that, as we will see below, there is another large distortion from Ireland this month – their figures are driven more by the large multi-national corporations which have their headquarters there rather than real output activity in the country.
The 3-month rolling trends calculated from the monthly indices published by Eurostat (including the impact of Ireland) show that total IP in the EU fell by -0.5% when comparing the latest period (January, February & March 2024) with the previous block (October, November & December 2023); On the same basis, total IP fell by -1.2% in the Euro-zone.
Within the total, the sub-set of the capital goods industries was the only one of these groups to see output increase compared both with the previous month (February 2024) and a year earlier (March 2023). For the month-on-month trends, output in the EU grew by +0.7%, with the Euro-zone growing by +1.0%; looking back a year gives growth of +1.5% for the EU and +1.8% for the Euro-zone.
Staying with the 12-month trends, of the 27 Member States, total IP increased in 10 and declined in 17. The largest increases in total IP were in Ireland (+37.0%), Cyprus (+8.5%) and Romania (+3.5%), with the most significant declines being recorded by Finland (-7.7%), Bulgaria (-7.6%) and Austria (-7.0%).
You can get the Eurostat figures from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators (15 May) or request it from MTA.
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European GDP, 1st Quarter 2024: Eurostat also published an update on the GDP figures for the start of 2024. This was unrevised at +0.3% for both the EU and the Euro-zone, confirming the end of the recession experienced in the latter area (but not for the EU as a whole).
There was, however, a slight revision to the trend compared to a year earlier, with growth in the EU being revised down to +0.4% (from +0.5%) so that it now matches the unrevised figure for the Euro-zone.
Compared to the initial release a couple of weeks ago, we now have data for more countries, with 22 of the Member States having released their Q1-24 numbers. Of these, only 3 – Estonia, Netherlands and Sweden – saw a smaller economy than in the previous quarter, with one more (Slovenia) seeing no change. Of the three with a negative trend, Estonia and Sweden have had at least 4 negative quarters, so are firmly in recession; the Netherlands, technically, avoids this fate as there as some growth in Q4-23, but the other 3 of the latest 4 quarters were also negative.
You can get the Eurostat figures from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators (15 May) or request it from MTA.