CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June* 2024: The June* dated edition of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) suggests that manufacturing output volumes were broadly unchanged in the latest 3 months* following the increase that was recorded in the previous survey.
However, only 4 of the 17 sub-sectors saw an increase in output with the food & drink and motor vehicles & transport equipment groups being particularly strong and outweighing smaller reductions in most of the other elements of the manufacturing sector. A modest increase in output is expected for the coming 3 months to September* – this pace of growth is the strongest prediction since the October* 2023 survey.
There are some interesting variations in the questions about new business with total order books improving compared to the May* survey but still indicating a fall in demand at a pace that remains lower than the long-run average. This came despite a further deterioration for export orders which fell to its lowest level since February 2021.
Stocks of finished goods continue to be more than adequate and at a level that is just above the long-run average for this measure, so this is unlikely to provide a boost to demand in the short-run.
* Note that although this survey is dated June, the data collection took place between 24th May and 12th June so the results really cover the 3-month periods from March to May (past) and June to August (future). A similar principle applies to the other months mentioned in this report.
You can get the Press Release of the CBI ITS from their website at www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (24 June) or request it from MTA (we can also provide a summary of the results).