European GDP, 3rd Quarter 2022: In its latest release of GDP data, Eurostat has upgraded its estimate of growth in the 3rd quarter to +0.4% for the EU and +0.3% for the Euro-zone – both were previously estimated to have grown by +0.2% compared to the previous quarter.
This also means that the growth rate compared to a year earlier has been increased; the estimate for the EU is now +2.5% (was +2.4%) and for the Euro-zone it is +2.3% (from +2.1%). Eurostat reports that this means that GDP for the EU as a whole is now +2.8% larger than in Q4-2019 (the last quarter before the impact of the Covid pandemic) with the Euro-zone now +2.2% larger.
Eurostat gives comparisons for the USA; quarter-on-quarter growth in the 3rd period of 2022 was +0.7% while the level was +1.9% higher than a year earlier and +4.3% above its pre-pandemic point.
Analysing the data by type of activity, the largest contribution to growth came from gross fixed capital investment which increased by +3.2% in the EU and by +3.6% for the Euro-zone. On the other hand, the main drag on GDP was the external balance with imports growing more rapidly than exports.
With data now available for all of the EU countries, only one – Estonia – is already in recession with negative trends in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters. The other two countries (Luxembourg and Poland) that had a contraction in the 2nd quarter saw a return to growth in Q3 so avoided that marker, at least for now. With the 3rd quarter seeing nine countries (Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Netherlands and Slovenia) record a fall in GDP and the general economic prospects looking rather gloomy, there is a good chance that others may join Estonia in having a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of non-positive growth – by the end of the year.
Using the quarter-on-quarter measure, the fastest growing economies in Q3 were Ireland (+2.3%), Cyprus, Malta and Romania (all +1.3%). Among those nine countries whose economies contracted in the 3rd quarter, the fastest were Estonia (-1.8%), Latvia (-1.7%) and Slovenia (-1.4%).
For more details, you can download the Euro-indicators report from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/euro-indicators (07 December).
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CECIMO Data Exchange, December 2022: Last week we reported the statement from the CECIMO Autumn General Assembly meeting. We have now received the Statistical Report and the supporting papers which contain more detail on the European machine tool industry.
Attached below are the Statistical Overview and the summary of the National Activity Forms (NAF) which give the data for production, exports, imports and, by calculation, consumption. If you would like to receive the full statistical report, which includes the individual country returns (these have some very high level macro-economics indicators and a listing of the top export markets and import sources for each country), please contact Geoff Noon at MTA (Email: [email protected]).