According to the latest results of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) manufacturing output fell sharply in the 3 months to September and the decline was broadly based. In addition, output expectations have now turned negative – hardly a surprise given that orders have been on the decline for some months and this was repeated in this survey.
The latest edition of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) – dated September* – showed a sharp fall in the assessment of the volume of output over the past 3 months and at the fastest pace for 4 years. Output fell in 14 of the 17 sub-sectors and in the other 3 was only stable so there were no positive signs on this question. Worryingly for MTA and EIA members, the largest falls were in the motor vehicles & transport equipment, metal products and paper, printing & media industries.
The expectations for output volumes over the coming 3 months have continued to be positive despite a number of months of declining orders but this survey saw the first negative balance for the outlook since November 2023. It appears that reality has caught up with opinion.
The assessment of total order books also fell sharply, matching the figure we saw last November. Export order books were also much further below “normal” and were at their lowest since December 2020.
Stocks of finished goods were seen as “more than adequate” in September* with just a small reduction in the balance compared to the August* figure.
* Note that although this survey is dated September, the data collection took place between 23rd August and 13th September so the results really cover the 3-month periods from June to August (past) and September to November (future). A similar principle applies to the other months mentioned in this report.
You can get the Press Release of the CBI ITS from their website at www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (23 September) or request it from MTA (we can also provide a summary of the results).