The latest edition of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) reports a fall in manufacturing output in the latest three months. However, total order books improved relative to last month, although this came entirely from domestic sources as export business was flat; both total and export order books are well below their long-run average.
The November* edition of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) shows manufacturing output over the past 3 months falling at a faster pace than in October* (although slower than in September*), with a decrease in 14 of the 17 sub-sectors in the ITS analysis. This reduction was led by the chemicals, mechanical engineering (machinery) and metal products groups.
Output volumes over the three months to February* were at their most positive since the August* survey and slightly above the long-run average value. Although mechanical engineering (machinery) and metal products also have a negative outlook, there are positive indications from the automotive and aerospace industries.
Total order books were reported as “below normal”, but to a lesser extent than in the previous survey and at the least extent since June*, although still below the long-run average. Export order books were also “below normal” and to the same extent as in the October* survey.
Stocks of finished goods were seen as “more than adequate” in November*, with the highest balance since August 2020*.
* Note that although this survey is dated November, the data collection took place between 25th October and 13th November, so the results really cover the 3-month periods from August to October (past) and November to January 2025 (future). A similar principle applies to the other months mentioned in this report.
You can get the Press Release of the CBI ITS from their website at www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (21 November) or request it from MTA (we can also provide a summary of the results).