The CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) published this week pointed to another decline in manufacturing output in the three months to March and that this was at a faster pace than last month. Total order books contracted at the same pace as in the February-dated survey and there was a slight easing in the rate of decline of export orders.
The fall in manufacturing output in the March* survey was widely spread with 14 of the 17 sub-sectors seeing a fall in volumes over the previous 3-month period. This was led by the glass & ceramics, building materials and electrical goods industries – the first two of these also topped the list in the February* report. The outlook for the coming 3 months slipped back to a neutral balance following the small positive we saw in last month’s results, but at least this does not signal a further sharp decline.
Total order books were again reported to be “below normal” and to a similar extent to that which was recorded in the February* survey. Export order books also continue to be well “below normal”, but to a slightly lesser extent than in the previous survey. Both of the order books measures are significantly below their relative long-run average.
Stocks of finished goods were regarded as “more than adequate” in March* and the balance moved back to the level we saw in January* following the modest reprieve last month.
* Note that although this survey is dated March, the data collection took place between 25th February and 13th March, so the results really cover the 3-month periods from December to February (past) and March to May (future). A similar principle applies to the other months mentioned in this report.
You can get the Press Release of the CBI ITS from their website at www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (21 March) or request it from MTA (we can also provide a summary of the results).