The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) reflect the continued weakness in the UK manufacturing sector that we also see in the PMI data this week. Output fell at its steepest rate since August 2020 and expectations are at their weakest since the pandemic, with order books remaining well below their long-run average.
The percentage balance for output over the past three months fell to -25, its most negative reading since August 2020 with the weak position compounded by a balance of -31 for the expectations for output over the coming three-month period; in turn, that is the weakest result since May 2020 at the height of the Covid pandemic.
Over the past three months, output volumes fell in 15 of the 17 sub-sectors covered by the ITS with the most significant negative balances being recorded in furniture & upholstery, glass & ceramics and automotive & transport equipment groups.
The picture is no better for orders where total order books deteriorated further compared to the “November” survey; with a balance of -40, this is the weakest result since November 2020 and way below the long-run average level. Export order books were also significantly below normal and weaker than in “November”, although in this case, only the worst since September 2024 which had an exceptionally low result.
Stocks of finished goods were reported to be “more than adequate” and at a rate only marginally better than in the previous survey which had been the highest reading since August 2020.
Note: Although labelled as “December”, this is when the survey was published – data collection ran from 25th November to 11th December – so the results really refer to November, with the 3-month periods being September to November (past) and December to February (coming).
The CBI press release on these survey results is available on their website at https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/ (18 December) or we can let you have a copy of the summary of the results and some charts around the investment intentions data.