The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) saw a fall in output over the past three months but a less weak picture for total order books despite a slight weakening of export business. Expectations for selling price inflation accelerated after a 3½ year low in July and stock adequacy for finished goods also rose slightly.
The latest edition of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) – dated August* – showed the first significant decline in manufacturing output volumes since March, having been broadly flat in July. Output volumes fell in 10 of the 17 sub-sectors covered by the ITS in the 3 months to August*, with the overall decline led by the furniture & upholstery, glass & ceramics and electrical goods industries.
While expectations for output volumes over the coming three months remain positive, they are at their weakest since the May* survey and just on the long-run average value.
Total order books are, on balance, still “below normal”, but this was less so than in the previous survey; however, this measure is still below its long-run average. In contrast, export order books weakened compared to the July* survey and are also now below their long-run average.
Stocks of finished goods were seen as “more than adequate” in August* and with the balance increasing to +15, this is back above the long-run average and at the highest level since January*.
- Note that although this survey is dated August, the data collection took place between 26th July and 13th August so the results really cover the 3-month periods from May to July (past) and August to October (future). A similar principle applies to the other months mentioned in this report.
You can get the Press Release of the CBI ITS from their website at www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre (22 August) or request it from MTA (we can also provide a summary of the results).