Economic News - MTA

Both the ONS and Eurostat have released details of spending on Research & Development (R&D) during 2023;  for the UK, this grew by +2.9% compared to 2022, with an increase of +6.7% recorded in the EU.  In the UK, the largest sector for R&D spending was pharmaceuticals, with the automotive industry also making an important […]

Almost all of the flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for December were more negative, with Japan and India the most notable exceptions, although some improvement is hinted at in parts of the Euro-zone.  The UK reading fell to its lowest level since January, with output recording a notable acceleration in the pace of […]

Eurostat reports that total industrial production (IP) in the EU was +0.3% higher than in September but was unchanged for the Euro-zone;  this stabilization follows sharp declines in the previous month.  Compared to a year earlier (October 2023), total IP fell by -0.8% in the EU and by -1.2% in the Euro-zone. Eurostat publishes its […]

The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) reflect the continued weakness in the UK manufacturing sector that we also see in the PMI data this week.  Output fell at its steepest rate since August 2020 and expectations are at their weakest since the pandemic, with order books remaining well below their long-run […]

The October figures for US orders for from our colleagues at AMT suggest that both markets have flattened off recently, although machinery is at the bottom of the cycle while tooling is at the top.  The strikes at Boeing, which lasted for most of the month, add a complication to interpreting the latest data. The […]

Eurostat has upgraded its 3rd quarter GDP growth estimate for the EU to +0.4% – this matches the unrevised estimate for the Euro-zone and is double the 2nd quarter value of +0.2% in both areas.  The comparisons with the level of a year ago are unchanged at +1.0% for the EU and +0.9% for the […]

The economic headlines this morning were led by the monthly GDP figures which showed an unexpected decline of -0.1% for October, with growth of just +0.1% over the past 3 months (compared to the previous period).  The service sector was unchanged compared to September, with a fall in output for both the manufacturing and construction […]

Data published this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that manufacturing output fell by -0.6% in October;  however, monthly data can be volatile so we prefer to use the rolling 3-month trend which shows no change in output in the latest 3 months and a decline of -0.3% compared to the same […]

The latest set of results for the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data was somewhat mixed.  The overall global figure improved to exactly the 50 threshold value, moving from negative territory for the first time since June.  With some exceptions, European countries, including the UK, generally saw a weaker reading than in October while those […]

Total orders for Japanese manufacturers of metal cutting machine tools showed a quarter-on-quarter decline of -5%;  export demand (-6%) fell more rapidly than the home market (-2%) with an export ratio of 70% in the 3rd quarter.  Compared to Q3-23, total orders fell by -1%;  within this, home orders fell by -9% but exports grew […]

With IMTS in September, this should have been a good month for business in the US and, to an extent, we do see this in the machine tool orders figures which were the highest for some time but below the average for an “IMTS September”.  The tooling side of the sector was affected by the […]

The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) compiled by the European Commission was broadly stable in November for both the EU and the Euro-zone.  Industry confidence improved but this was offset by a decline in the service sector.  The biannual investment survey results show a neutral outlook for 2024 and a modest positive balance for 2025. The […]

The flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector for November paints an almost completely negative picture, with India as the only bright spot among the handful of countries for whom we have the initial reading.  The UK manufacturing PMI slipped to a 9-month low, with output falling alongside the other elements of the […]

Following our article last week on the manufacturing output and GDP data for the 3rd quarter, there are three other relevant series which were part of that release – investment, trade and productivity – and we have added the latest figures for profitability to this set of notes, although the latter is only for the […]

The latest edition of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) reports a fall in manufacturing output in the latest three months.  However, total order books improved relative to last month, although this came entirely from domestic sources as export business was flat;  both total and export order books are well below their long-run average. The […]

In the second release of data for GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2024, Eurostat left its original estimate of growth of +0.3% for the EU and +0.4% in the Euro-zone compared to Q2-24 unchanged.  Compared to a year ago (the rolling annual rate), the EU economy has expanded by +1.0% (up from +0.9% in […]

European Industrial Production (IP) fell by -2.0% compared to August for both the EU and the Euro-zone, although this does follow a smaller but still significant increase in August;  while the often-volatile Irish figures are part of the story, there were also significant declines in Germany and Italy.  Compared to September 2023, total IP fell […]

With the ONS estimating that GDP fell by -0.1% in September, growth in the 3rd quarter of the year was just +0.1% – lower than many commentators had expected.  It marks a sharp contrast with the first half of the year where UK GDP had grown by +0.7% in Q1 and +0.5% in Q2.  In […]

The latest data on the manufacturing sector from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that although output fell by -1.0% in September, it grew by +0.2% for the 3rd quarter as a whole – mainly because of weakness in April and May below the line in the calculation.  Despite this improvement in the latest […]

Completing the picture for the October data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing in October, the overall Global reading improved this month to 49.4, although this is now the 4th consecutive month that it has been in negative territory.  The missing European data was mostly negative (Spain is the exception) but India remains […]

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%.  However, despite being widely expected, the vote was 8-1 in the context of an expectation that the recent budget will add slightly to the level of inflation over the next year or so which means […]

Eurostat has updated its figures on investment and profitability for the Euro-zone and released the estimate for the whole of the EU.  Both the business investment and profitability rates declined in the EU and the Euro-zone with the former at the lowest level since Q1-2015 and the latter since the pandemic. The investment rate for […]

In their preliminary flash estimate of European GDP for Q3-2024, Eurostat points to an acceleration in growth for the Euro-zone with a quarter-on-quarter increase of +0.4% compared to growth of +0.2% in the 2nd period of the year.  However, for the EU as a whole, the growth rate is stable at +0.3% in both periods. […]

The October report from the European Commission shows a reduction in the ESI for both the EU and the Euro-zone and it is now at its lowest level since February and July respectively.  This decline was entirely driven by a sharp and broadly based fall in industry confidence compared to the previous month. The European […]

Due to our schedule and public holidays around the world, we only have some of the data for the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for October so we will update this report next week.  The UK creates the headlines this month, slipping to 49.9, just under the key threshold of 50 for the first […]

In the quarterly National Accounts published by Eurostat, they upgraded the estimate of GDP growth for the EU to +0.3% (from +0.2% previously) but the Euro-zone figure was unchanged at +0.2%.  Compared to the 2nd quarter of 2024, GDP is now estimated to have grown by +0.8% in the EU and by +0.6% for the […]

The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) showed output volumes fell in the 3 months to October, although at a slower pace in the equivalent period to September.  Orders were also negative.  Updating the comments made at the forecast seminar, the improvement in investment intentions for plant & machinery that we saw […]

At the annual MTA Forecast Seminar yesterday, delegates reflected on a tale of diverging economic prospects over the next couple of years, with the US economy slowing but only heading for a soft landing.  Growth in other advanced economies is expected to be more resilient, although Asia is usually stronger than Europe. The industry picture […]

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK in its latest report on the global economic outlook. As reported by the BBC, the organisation has said it expects the UK economy to “accelerate” over the rest of the year. The figure, which was revised up to 1.1% from a previous forecast of 0.7%, […]

The latest US orders data from our colleagues at AMT shows a continuation of recent trends with the machine tool market still on a downward trend while demand for cutting tools remains high but has come off slightly from the peak level we saw in the Spring. The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks […]

Data published by Eurostat shows that total industrial production (IP) in the EU increased by +1.8% in the EU, with growth of +1.3% in the Euro-zone when compared to July.  Looking back to August 2023, the latest figure was +0.2% higher for the EU and up by +0.1% in the Euro-zone. Eurostat publishes its output […]

The ONS uses the output data to produce the monthly estimate of GDP for the UK economy and August saw modest growth of +0.2%, following two months of “no change” in the economy.  Real GDP is estimated to have grown by +0.2% in the 3 months to August 2024 compared with the equivalent period to […]

Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that manufacturing output in August was +1.1% higher than in July;  however, we prefer to focus on the 3-month moving average and this showed an increase of +0.5% compared to the previous period but was down by -1.5% on the same months in 2023. As […]

Data published by Eurostat shows that profitability of non-financial corporations in the Euro-zone fell in the 2nd quarter to 38.8% – this is the lowest rate since Q2-2020.  On the same basis, the investment rate declined to 21.3%;  for this series, this is the lowest figure since Q3-2015. The gross investment rate of non-financial corporations […]

The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) compiled by the European Commission was broadly stable in September* for the EU and edged down slightly in the Euro-zone.  At the EU level, this was a balance between improved confidence in construction and among consumers and a decline for the industry sector. The European Commission (EC) draws from a […]

The publication of the UK National Accounts by the ONS for the 2nd quarter has also brought with it the annual rebasing exercise and related revisions.  There was little change to the GDP data over the past couple of years but some more significant changes to the investment data. The revisions associated with the rebasing […]

The latest edition of the CECIMO Toolbox has just been released;  it is titled for Q2-24 as this is the main data period, although some of the series are more up to date.  The Toolbox document groups information into 6 categories covering historical data for the sector, demand, investment, the business climate, general economic indicators […]

According to the latest results of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) manufacturing output fell sharply in the 3 months to September and the decline was broadly based.  In addition, output expectations have now turned negative – hardly a surprise given that orders have been on the decline for some months and this was repeated […]

It was a mixed picture for the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data produced by S&P Global that was published this week.  The global figure slipped further into negative territory, a trend that was, inevitably, shared by many countries.  However, the UK was an exception to the direction of travel and still has a PMI […]

The ONS uses the output data to produce the monthly estimate of GDP for the UK economy – overall, July is estimated to be the 2nd consecutive month of no change in output.  As well as manufacturing, output fell in July for the construction sector and these combined to balance a small increase for the […]

Output data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the manufacturing sector showed output falling by -1.0% compared to June – this reverses almost all of the +1.1% growth recorded in that month compared to May.  Over the latest 3 months (May, June and July 2024) total manufacturing output was -0.3% lower than in […]

In its latest release of the GDP estimates for the 2nd quarter, Eurostat has edged this down to growth of +0.2% compared to the previous quarter for both the EU and the Euro-zone (from +0.3% for both areas – this remains the rate recorded in Q1).  However, the comparison with the level of a year […]

The Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing slipped again in August as output was negative (although only marginally) for the first time this year, with a downturn in output for both the investment and intermediate goods sub-sectors;  orders were also lower.  Some countries bucked this trend, including the UK where the PMI improved to […]

Total orders for Japanese manufacturers of metal cutting machine tools showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of +5% in the 2nd quarter.  This came entirely from export demand which grew by +8% (to account for 70% of the total), while domestic business was broadly unchanged from the Q1-24 figure. The Japan Machine Tool Builders Association (JMTBA) also […]

The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) compiled by the European Commission eased up in August* for both the EU and the Euro-zone.  At the EU level, there was an improvement in confidence for industry, services and retail trade while construction and consumers confidence were broadly stable. The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys […]

The latest US orders data from AMT shows that the machine tool market continues to decline compared to last year, although the pace of that is slowing and the cumulative 12-month total has been stable since March.  Cutting tool demand has similarly flattened recently, although here it is at the top of the cycle. The […]

The flash August Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector showed an improvement for the UK but a further weakening in the Euro-zone; India continues to lead the way overall and both Japan and Australia managed to improve their results but they remain below the 50 threshold; the USA saw a further fall in […]

There are three other elements of the GDP data that was released last week which we cover here. Total business investment was broadly unchanged on the 1st quarter. The trade deficit grew with imports of goods rising more rapidly that exports. Productivity for the whole economy was higher than before the pandemic but increased significantly […]

The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) saw a fall in output over the past three months but a less weak picture for total order books despite a slight weakening of export business. Expectations for selling price inflation accelerated after a 3½ year low in July and stock adequacy for finished goods […]

In the second release of data for GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2024, Eurostat has confirmed its previous estimate of growth of +0.3% for both the Euro-zone and the EU overall.  While the annualized rate of growth for the Euro-zone is unchanged at +0.6%, the estimate for the EU has been upgraded slightly to […]

European Industrial Production (IP) fell by -0.1% compared to May for the Euro-zone but was unchanged for the EU – this decline was driven by the non-durable consumer goods industries.  In comparison with a year earlier, IP fell by -3.9% and -3.2% respectively.  The quarterly data shows the average for Q2 was -0.4% lower than […]

With the ONS estimating that GDP was flat in June (compared to May), growth for the 2nd quarter of the year comes out at +0.6%.  This is slightly down on the +0.7% recorded in the 1st period of the year but with growth having been minimal through 2022 and 2023, the annualised rate moves up […]

The latest data on the manufacturing sector from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that despite an increase in output of +1.1% in June, the 2nd quarter level was -0.7% lower than in the previous period and -0.6% down on a year ago.  The latest figure is 99.6% of its pre-pandemic level (Q4-2019 for […]

Data just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows expenditure on research and development (R&D) in 2022 of £70.7 billion in the UK – this is an increase of +6.7% in current prices over 2021, but all of this is taken up by inflation and in constant prices, there was a fall of […]

In the July report, the ESI for both the EU and the Euro-zone was broadly stable, with a tiny increase for the EU and an equivalent reduction for the Euro-zone although these changes are both within the margin of error for the measure;  it remains below the long-run average for both areas.  The measure of […]

In this section we cover the preliminary flash estimate of European GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2024 (which is steady at a modest rate of +0.3% quarter-on-quarter) and the updated figures for business investment (which improved) and profitability (which fell sharply compared to Q4-23) for the 1st quarter of 2024. European GDP, 2nd Quarter […]

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%.  It had announced the increased rate at its meeting on 3rd August 2023, so this reduction comes exactly a year after reaching the peak level.  As expected, it was a close decision, with a vote […]

It was a mixed picture for the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data produced by S&P Global that was published this week.  Although the global figure slipped into negative territory for the first time since last December and, inevitably, many countries also had a negative trend, the UK was among those which bucked the trend […]

The flash estimates for the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector point to continued recovery in the UK – which had its strongest reading for 2 years – weakness in Europe and the USA and a mixed picture in Asia. The flash manufacturing PMI for the UK showed a further improvement with the […]

The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) showed output volumes flat in the latest 3 months but there was a sharp improvement in the outlook for the next quarter although this has to be tempered by a continuing weakness in orders.  Investment intentions for plant & machinery also moved up a little, […]

In the quarterly National Accounts published today by Eurostat it has confirmed that GDP for both the EU and the sub-set of the Euro-zone grew by +0.3% compared to the previous quarter.  Compared to the 1st quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP grew by +0.6% in the EU and +0.5% in the Euro-zone – in […]

According to the latest data from Eurostat, total industrial production (IP) in the EU declined by -0.8% compared to April, with a fall of -0.6% for the Euro-zone.  Compared to May 2023, total IP decreased by -2.5% in the EU and by -2.9% for the Euro-zone. The 3-month rolling trends calculated from the monthly indices […]

In conjunction with its recent Council Meeting, CELIMO (the European grouping of Associations representing importers/distributors of manufacturing technology) has released its latest State of Trade Report.  This summarises the economic situation and the current trends for the machine tool and cutting tool market;  it covers 15 countries, 11 of which are members of CELIMO.  This […]

USMTO and CTMR, May 2024:  The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders in the US market, based on the reports from participants.  In the first five months of 2024, machine tool orders are -12.2% lower than in the same period of 2023 (January to May inclusive).  The reports notes that May was the […]

UK Manufacturing Output, May 2024:  Output data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for the manufacturing sector showed growth of +0.4% compared to April but a reduction of -0.3% when comparing the latest 3 months (March, April and May 2024) with the previous period (December 2023 and January & February 2024);  looking back a […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, June 2024:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average. In the June* report, the […]

With the publication of the UK National Accounts for the 1st quarter, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revised up the estimate for growth in the economy to +0.7%;  however, given the falls in GDP in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2023 and a flat trend in the previous quarter, the annualized rate […]

The Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing, produced by S&P Global and sponsored by J P Morgan, fell very slightly to 50.9 in June (the revised reading for May was 51.0).  The manufacturing PMI is a weighted composite index of new orders (30%), output (25%), employment (20%), suppliers’ delivery times (15%) and stocks of […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June* 2024:  The June* dated edition of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) suggests that manufacturing output volumes were broadly unchanged in the latest 3 months* following the increase that was recorded in the previous survey.  However, only 4 of the 17 sub-sectors saw an increase in output with the food […]

Flash Purchasing Managers Index, June 2024:  S&P Global, who produce most of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports, have published their flash estimates for June – these are usually based on about 85% of the final number of returns – although our publishing schedule means that the figures for the USA are not out until […]

European Industrial Production, April 2024:  Eurostat has also published its sectoral output data although they use Industrial Production (IP) as the top-level aggregate;  while the largest part of this is the manufacturing sector, it also includes energy and utilities (but not construction) and the breakdown of the total by sector misses out having a figure […]

UK Manufacturing Output , April 2024:  The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that UK manufacturing output fell by -1.4%  but over the 3-months ending in that month, it was +1.0% higher than in the previous period.  The reduction in the monthly trend was mainly due to a sharp fall in […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, May 2024:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average. The May* report shows the […]

The Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing, produced by S&P Global and sponsored by J P Morgan more than recovered the dip we saw in April (which looks like an effect from the timing of Easter) and at 50.9, it recorded its highest level since July 2022.  Both output and new orders saw an […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May* 2024: The latest edition of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) – dated May* – showed the first increase in manufacturing output volumes in 18 months, although there was an interesting contrast with order books which were at their weakest since last November. While output was positive overall, it only […]

Flash Purchasing Managers Index, May 2024: The flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector jumped into positive territory with the reading of 51.3 being the highest since July 2022. This was broadly based with both output and new orders indicating growth, although the latter was mainly from the home market with export […]

European Industrial Production, March 2024:  The latest monthly data from Eurostat shows that, compared to February, total industrial production (IP) grew by +0.2% for the EU but by +0.6% for the sub-set which is the Euro-zone countries.  Looking back 12 months to March 2023, total IP grew by +1.0% for both the EU and the […]

UK Business Investment, 1st Quarter 2024:  One of the other data series that came out at the end of last week but which we did not have time to report was for business investment.  Unfortunately, we will have to wait for the National Accounts data at the end of June for the industry level breakdown, […]

UK Manufacturing Output, March and 1st Quarter 2024:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has just published the output data for March and, therefore, the 1st quarter of 2024.  We will focus mainly on the quarterly data but it is worth noting that manufacturing output increased by +0.3% compared to February but with rises in […]

European GDP, 1st Quarter 2024:  An initial estimate published by Eurostat shows GDP growth of +0.3% for both the EU and the sub-set of the Euro-zone.  For the latter, this means that the recession (two or more successive quarters of negative GDP) that was recorded over the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2023 has ended. […]

The Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing, produced by S&P Global and sponsored by J P Morgan, slipped back slightly in April but remains marginally positive at 50.3.  This theme of a weakening is repeated in most, but not all of the individual countries and regions we cover in this report.  Globally, output and […]

Flash Purchasing Managers Index, February 2024:  For the UK at least, the optimism of having the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector tick above the crucial 50 level may have proved to be fleeting with the flash estimate falling back to 48.7.  Just as the positive trend in March had been driven by […]

European Industrial Production, January 2024:  The latest data from Eurostat on industrial production (IP) shows a seasonally adjusted increase of +0.7% for the EU and +0.8% for the sub-set of the Euro-zone.  Despite this recent growth, compared to February 2023, total IP fell by -5.4% in the EU and by -6.4% for the Euro-zone. However, […]

The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) showed an improvement in the overall sentiment;  output was broadly stable in the three months to April* after falling steadily from the start of the year and while orders are still declining, this is at a slower pace than in the January* survey.  The details […]

European Investment & Profitability, 4th Quarter 2023:  Eurostat has published data on the investment rate and profitability although, bizarrely, this is mixed up in a report which is headlined to be about the household saving rate.  Note, also, that this data is only for the Euro-zone and does not include any country analysis. The investment […]

UK Manufacturing Output, February 2024:  Data published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that the manufacturing sector had a good month in February with output growing by +1.2% compared to January;  this took the level to its highest since June 2023 and to 95.7% of its pre-pandemic peak – for the monthly […]

The Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing, produced by S&P Global and sponsored by J P Morgan edged up again in March and the reading of 50.6 is the highest since July 2022.  The manufacturing PMI is a weighted composite index of new orders (30%), output (25%), employment (20%), suppliers’ delivery times (15%) and […]

The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average. In the March* report, the ESI for both the EU and the […]

UK Interest Rate Decision:  Members will be aware that the Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25% at its meeting this week.  However, perhaps the most significant element of this decision is that none of the Committee’s members voted to raise interest rates for the first time since September 2021.  The vote […]

European Industrial Production, January 2024:  Eurostat has also published its data although they use Industrial Production (IP) as the top-level aggregate;  while the largest part of this is the manufacturing sector, it also includes energy and utilities (but not construction) and the breakdown of the total by sector misses out having a figure for manufacturing. […]

UK Manufacturing Output , January 2024:  The manufacturing output data for January 2024 published this week by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed no change compared to December 2023 in the seasonally adjusted figures.  The level of output in January was at 95.0% of its pre-pandemic peak – for the monthly series this is […]

Purchasing Managers Index (update), February 2024:  The only economic news this week is to update our report on the Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing that was being published as we wrote the Friday Brief last week. The overall Global PMI for manufacturing, produced by J P Morgan using data largely from S&P Global edged up […]

Given that there are many sources from which to discover “what the Budget means for you”, this note will focus on the implications for business (rather than individuals) and, in particular, for those involved in the engineering sector. There was little of direct interest to MTA, EIA and AM-UK members in this week’s Budget Statement […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, February 2024:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average. The February* report shows the […]

Our publishing schedules mean that we don’t yet have the global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) or the figures for the countries of the Americas or South Korea (the latter is not out until Monday) – we will update this report and the charts next week – but the data released so far today suggests […]

Flash Purchasing Managers Index, February 2024:  The flash manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for February 22, 2024 is little changed from the previous month’s reading, having edged up to 47.1 (from 47.0 in January). There is some good news in that the output element of the index improved from 45.5 to 47.3 although part of […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, February* 2024:  The February dated edition of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) points to a fall in manufacturing output across almost all of the sub-sectors and industries.  Manufacturing output volumes fell in the 3 months to February* and at a sharper pace than in the period to January* and back […]

UK Manufacturing Output , December, 4th Quarter & full year 2023: The latest data on manufacturing output data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that although there was a month-on-month increase of +0.8% in both November and December, as a result of a fall of -1.3% in October and the base effects from […]

European Industrial Production, December 2023:  Data published by Eurostat this week shows a sharp increase in industrial production (IP);  it is estimated to have grown by +2.6% compared to November in both the EU and the Euro-zone.  However, care is needed in interpreting this due to a massive increase of +23.5% in Ireland where the […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator and Capacity Utilisation, January 2024:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and uses this to calculate its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI).  The other point to note is that although labelled as “January 2024” or “Q1-2024”, the […]

UK Interest Rate Increase and Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report:  At its meeting this week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6-3 to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%.  Of the dissenters, two members voted for an increase of 25 basis points (i.e. to 5.5%) and one […]

The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global improved to a neutral reading of exactly 50.0 – this is the first time it has not been below this level since August 2022.  This was a combination of output volumes increasing for the first time […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, January 2024:  The CBI published the results of its Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) for January*;  this showed a fall in output volumes over the previous 3 months with little expectation for much of a recovery in the coming period.  Total new orders fell at their fastest pace since July 2020 reflecting […]

European Industrial Production, November 2023:  The data for Europe released by Eurostat has Industrial Production (IP) as the top-level aggregate;  while the largest part of this is the manufacturing sector, it also includes energy and utilities (but not construction) and the breakdown of the total by sector misses out having a figure for manufacturing. Total […]

UK Manufacturing Output , November 2023:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest data on manufacturing output at the end of last week, just too late for our publishing schedules.  Although the headline shows month-on-month growth of +0.4% in November, the negative values in the two previous months mean that manufacturing output over […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, December 2023: The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average. The December* reading built upon […]

UK National Accounts, 3rd Quarter 2023:  Just before the Christmas break, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the national accounts for the 3rd quarter.  This main headline was the downgrading of the GDP data for the 3rd quarter from aero (actually negative but not by enough to see at one decimal point) to a […]

The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global dropped back to 49.0 (49.3 in November), extending the run of sub-50 readings to 16 months.  Both output and new orders contracted, with the fall in output concentrated in the intermediate goods sector – consumer and, […]

UK Manufacturing Output , October 2023:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the output data for October this week and it made rather gloomy reading.  Total manufacturing output fell by -1.1% compared to September;  on our preferred measure of using rolling 3-month blocks, it was down by -0.9% comparing the latest 3 months (August, […]

European Industrial Production, October 2023:  Eurostat also published its output data this week, although they use Industrial Production (IP) (the largest part of which is manufacturing, but it also includes energy and utilities (but not construction) as the top-level aggregate.  Also, the way in which Eurostat publishes these figures requires a lot of digging to […]

European GDP, 3rd Quarter 2023:  Eurostat has issued its third estimate of economic growth (or rather the lack of it) for the 3rd quarter of 2023.  They have kept their previous estimate of no change in GDP for the EU as a whole but a quarter-on-quarter fall of -0.1% for the Euro-zone.  However, the comparison […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, November 2023: The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average. The November* reading showed a […]

The November data for the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for manufacturing is, so far, generally moving in an upward direction but mostly still indicating that activity in the sector is contracting. Because the data is published today, our publishing schedules mean that we don’t yet have the data for any of the countries on […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November* 2023:  The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) shows that manufacturing output volumes fell in the 3 months to November* and was at its most negative since the August* dated survey.  Output is expected to fall again in the coming 3 months, although at a slightly slower […]

With thanks to Jack Semple, Secretary of EAMA (of which MTA is a member) for providing the bulk of this note, here are some of the highlights of this week’s Autumn Statement by the Chancellor of the Exchequer. We will start with those that are of most relevance to the engineering industries and then cover […]

USMTO and CTMR, September 2023:  The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders in the US market, based on the reports from participants in the survey.  Machine tool orders in the first nine months of 2023 were -13.8% below the level in the same months of last year (January to September 2022).  The 12-month […]

European Industrial Production, September 2023:  Following the UK manufacturing output data which we reported last week, Eurostat has published the European figures, although they use industrial production as the headline series and don’t provide directly comparable data for the manufacturing sector in their news release.  Another complication is that their data is monthly with no […]

UK Trade, 3rd Quarter 2023:  The final element of the quarterly GDP figures from the ONS that we reported on last Friday is trade;  because of significant distortions from trade in non-monetary gold, we will use the data and trends for the trade in goods excluding precious metals in this note. For the total trade […]

UK Manufacturing Output , September & 3rd Quarter 2023: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the September output data this morning and the month-on-month trend shows an increase of +0.1% compared to August. There was an increase in output in 5 of the 13 sub-sectors, led by the computer, electronic & optical products and […]

European GDP, 3rd Quarter 2023:  The preliminary flash estimate of GDP from Eurostat for the 3rd quarter of 2023 shows an increase of +0.1% for the EU but a fall of -0.1% for the Euro-zone.  This means that compared to the 3rd quarter of 2022, seasonally adjusted GDP has grown by just +0.1% in both […]

UK Interest Rate Decision and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report:  At its meeting this week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3 to hold the Bank Rate at 5.25% – after 14 consecutive increases, this is the 2nd meeting at which the MPC has voted to hold rates (the September […]

The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global fell to a 3-month low of 48.8 in October with output contracting for the 5th consecutive month and a further deterioration in new orders – it is the 14th month in a row that this has […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, October 2023:  The latest data from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) showed that total new orders were flat in the three months to October*.  This was made up of a combination of a fall in domestic orders that was balanced by the strongest performance for export orders since January 2022. […]

Qimtek Contract Manufacturing Index, 3rd Quarter 2023:  The Qimtek Contract Manufacturing Index (CMI) uses data on the total purchasing budget for outsourced manufacturing of companies looking to place business in any given month to track activity  in the sub-contracting sector.  With two poor months in July and August, the recovery in September was not enough […]

European Industrial Production, August 2023:  Eurostat also published its output data this morning, although the aggregate they quote is for Industrial Production (IP) – the largest part of this is manufacturing, but it also includes energy and utilities (but not construction).  Also, the way in which Eurostat publishes these figures requires a lot of digging […]

UK Manufacturing Output , August 2023:  The data on manufacturing output released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) gives us the details of the revisions that first appeared with the UK national accounts at the end of September.  While the overall GDP trends for most of 2023 were only tweaked slightly, there have been […]

The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global ticked up to 49.1 in September but is below the crucial 50 level for the 13th month in a row (note that India and South Korea were not included in the calculation this month due to […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, September 2023:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average. The September* reading showed another […]

UK National Accounts, 2nd Quarter 2023:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the UK National Accounts for the 2nd quarter.  In the short-term, the main pints to note is that GDP growth is unrevised at +0.2% for the 2nd quarter but Q1 ha been moved up to +0.3% from +0.1% in the previous release […]

The Commons’ Business and Trade Committee has published written submissions to its Exports-led Growth inquiry, including the submission from the Engineering and Machinery Alliance (EAMA). EAMA says that advanced engineering and manufacturing have great potential for improving productivity, growth and export performance.  Brexit has put the UK at a structural disadvantage in manufacturing and distribution […]

European Industrial Production, July 2023:  Eurostat has also released the output data for the EU although they use Industrial production (IP) as the top aggregate;  while this is dominated by manufacturing, it also includes energy and utilities (but not construction) and the breakdown of the total by sector misses out having a figure for manufacturing. […]

UK Manufacturing Output , July 2023:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest data on manufacturing output this week, showing a fall of -0.7% in July (compared to the previous month);  however, we prefer to look at the rolling 3-month trends as that takes out some of the natural volatility in monthly data […]

Purchasing Managers Index, August 2023 (update):  As promised, this note is to update the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data that was released last Friday.  The overall global index improved slightly but at 49.0 it extends the run of negative values (below the crucial 50 level that marks the boundary between expansion and contraction) to […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, August 2023:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average. The latest reading (dated August*) […]

As today is the first of the month, most of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for manufacturing is being released today;  however, our publishing schedule means that we don’t yet have the data from the Americas and the figures for the ASEAN region won’t be released until Monday owing to a public holiday in […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, August 2023:  The CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) dated August* showed a sharp drop in the balance for output volumes in the latest three months as this fell to its lowest level since September 2020.  Despite this weakness, the survey’s respondents expect a broadly flat trend for the coming three months, […]

USMTO and CTMR, June 2023: The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders in the US market, based on the reports from participants. Machine tool orders in the 1st half of 2023 were -12.7% below the level in the same months of last year (January to June 2022). The 12-month rolling total – effectively […]

European Industrial Production, June 2023: Following the UK manufacturing output data which we reported last week, Eurostat has published the European figures, although they use industrial production and don’t provide directly comparable data for the manufacturing sector. Another complication is that their data is monthly with no easy way of determining the quarterly figures from […]

UK Trade, 2nd Quarter 2023: The final element of the quarterly GDP figures from the ONS that we reported on last week is trade; because of significant distortions from trade in non-monetary gold, we will use the data and trends for the trade in goods excluding precious metals in this note. The 2nd quarter of […]

UK GDP, June & 2nd Quarter 2023:  The other major announcement from the ONS this morning were the GDP figures for June giving us the 2nd quarter figures.  We will concentrate on the quarterly figures but it is worth noting strong growth of +0.5% in June which is the fastest monthly rate since last October;  […]

UK Manufacturing Output , June & 2nd Quarter 2023:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the June output data this morning – this showed manufacturing output growing by +2.4% compared to May.  That month had seen output fall marginally and it seems most likely that this was caused by the extra bank holiday for […]

UK Interest Rate Increase and Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report:  At its meeting this week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to increase the Bank Rate by 25 points to 5.25%.  The vote was divided with 6 members in the majority opinion;  the 3 who had another view were split between […]

The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global was unchanged from the June reading of 48.7 and, therefore, level with the post-pandemic low point of December 2022.  Output contracted at an accelerated pace and new orders fell for the 13th consecutive month.  This trend […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July 2023:  The latest data from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) showed the first improvement in overall business sentiment for two years and that output volumes stabilized in the three months to July* after being on a steady downward trend since the February survey. Output only increased in 4 of […]

UK Manufacturing Output , May 2023:  Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last week showed that manufacturing output fell by -0.2% compared to April but thanks to a strong month in March, output in the latest 3 months (March to May 2023) was +0.8% higher than in the previous period (December 2022, […]

Euro-zone Investment & Profitability, 1st Quarter 2023:  Data from Eurostat shows a small improvement in the investment rate (defined as gross fixed capital formation divided by gross value added) compared to the previous quarter to stand at 24.1% (23.9% in Q4-22);  it is also above the level of a year earlier when it stood at […]

The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global slipped further into negative territory in June to 48.8 following three months at 49.6.  This came about because output declined (having been positive for 4 months) following another decrease in new orders – the 12th month […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, June 2023:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and uses these to make up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). There was another fall in the overall ESI in June* for both the EU and the Euro-zone […]

UK National Accounts, 1st Quarter 2022 – GDP & Investment:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released data on the UK National Accounts this morning.  This showed no change to the estimate of GDP growth of +0.1% compared to the previous quarter, leaving the UK economy and just +0.2% higher than a year earlier.  The […]

UK Manufacturing Output , April 2023:  The manufacturing output data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this week showed a month-on-month fall of -0.3% but thanks to a significant rise in March, output in the latest 3 months (February, March and April 2023) is +0.7% higher than in the previous 3-month period (November […]

European GDP, 1st Quarter 2023:  Data released this week by Eurostat provided a significant update on the European economy, especially for the Euro-zone.  The estimate of the trend for GDP in the 1st quarter has been revised to +0.1% for the EU (down from +0.2% in the previous release) and, importantly, to -0.1% for the […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, May 2023:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for five sectors of the economy and then uses these to calculate up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) which is converted to an index based on the long-run average. The latest report (dated May*) […]

Flash Manufacturing PMI, May 2023:  The flash estimates of the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector showed an acceleration in the rate of decline in activity with a reading of 46.9 – its lowest of the year and the 10th month in a row that it has been below the crucial 50 […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May 2023:  The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey showed another fall in output in the three months to May* and respondents to the survey expect it to fall in the coming three months as well.  The pace of decline did ease a little from the April survey but […]

UK Manufacturing Output March & 1st Quarter 2023:  At the end of last week, too late for our publishing deadline, the Office for national Statistics (ONS) published the manufacturing output data for March and, of course, with that the figures for the 1st quarter of the year. The March figures show that manufacturing output increased […]

European Industrial Production, March 2023:  Eurostat has also released its data for March although at the top level this is for industrial production and they don’t provide directly comparable data for manufacturing.  Also, their data is monthly with no easy way of determining the quarterly figures from the press release. The headline figures show a […]

USMTO and CTMR, March 2023:  The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders in the US market, based on the reports from participants.  In the 1st quarter of 2023, orders were -7.5% lower than in the same months of last year (January to March 2022).  This was despite a strong increase for March which […]

European GDP, 1st Quarter 2023:  The preliminary flash estimate of GDP from Eurostat for the 1st quarter of 2023 shows an increase of +0.3% for the EU and +0.1% for the Euro-zone.  In both cases this is an improvement from the previous quarter which had a decline of -0.1% in the EU and no change […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, April 2023:  Although the CBI is having a few reputational problems, the results of their surveys continue to provide valuable information about the economy and, from the Industrial Trends Survey (ITS), for the manufacturing sector.  Various indicators from this survey featured during our Economic Update presentation last week, so we will […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator and Capacity Utilisation, April 2023:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for six sectors of the economy and then uses five of these (financial services is not used) make up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI).  The other point to note is that […]

European Industrial Production, November 2022:  Total industrial production (IP) in the EU was +0.9% higher than in October 2022, with an increase of +1.0% for the subset of the Euro-zone countries.  However, this follows a significant decrease in October which has not been recovered in November.  Compared to November 2021, total IP grew by +2.0% […]

UK Industrial Production, November 2022:  At the end of last week, just after we had to close the Friday Brief, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the penultimate set of data for manufacturing output for 2022 with the figures for November.  The headline figure showed a fall of -0.5% compared to October but we […]

By Chris Devonshire-Ellis  Dmitri Medvedev, Russia’s ex-President now serving as the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council has met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The meeting was scheduled for Medvedev to take a personal letter from Russian President Putin to Xi. It’s contents were not disclosed but are likely to have included comments on […]

UK National Accounts, 3rd Quarter 2022:  Just before Christmas, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the national accounts for the 3rd quarter;  as well as a downward revision of growth for the latest period to -0.3% this also included similar revisions to the previous 4 quarters.  As a result, the UK economy is now […]

The Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing produced by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global edged down again with the reading of 48.6 the 4th in a row to be below the crucial 50 level.  Although output fell at a slightly slower rate, this was outweighed by an acceleration in the […]

European Industrial Production, October 2022:  In contrast to the UK, there was a sharp fall in industrial production (IP) in October, although this was also driven by a fall in energy production thanks, in part, to relatively mild weather.  There was a fall in IP of -1.9% for the EU overall, with the Euro-zone seeing […]

K Industrial Production, October 2022:  The latest manufacturing output data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed growth of +0.7% compared to September.  This was led by pharmaceuticals and transport equipment which was partly off-set by a reduction for basic metals & metal products.  However, month-on-month, there was growth in only 6 of […]

Earlier this week, our colleagues at the Institute of Export & International Trade produced a piece on the UK’s trade figures for October;  while we don’t usually report on the monthly trade figures, they highlight a continuing declines in UK exports after taking the effects of inflation into account – this is not just concentrated […]

European GDP, 3rd Quarter 2022:  In its latest release of GDP data, Eurostat has upgraded its estimate of growth in the 3rd quarter to +0.4% for the EU and +0.3% for the Euro-zone – both were previously estimated to have grown by +0.2% compared to the previous quarter. This also means that the growth rate […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November 2022:  The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) show that manufacturing output grew in the three months to “November”, its first increase since the equivalent period to “July”.  However, the less good news is that it is expected to contract over the coming 3 months, although as […]

USMTO and CTMR, September 2022:  The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders in the US market, based on the reports from participants.  In the first three-quarters of this year, total orders were worth $4.2 billion, +2.7% higher than in the same period in 2021 (January to September). We don’t usually comment on the […]

European Industrial Production, September 2022:  Last week we reported on the UK manufacturing output data and we now have the equivalent figures for Europe from Eurostat.  However, these are compiled on a slightly different basis with Eurostat using industrial production;  although this is mostly manufacturing output, it also includes energy production. Total industrial production increased […]

UK Investment, 3rd Quarter 2022:  Among the package of data published last Friday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) were the figures for investment spending in the 3rd quarter.  At this stage, we only have the high level data, with the breakdown by sector and industry to follow at a later date. Total business […]

This week, Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer, presented the Government’s Autumn Statement – notably not a budget but designed mainly to instil some stability and confidence in the UK economy following the ill-fated “fiscal event” given by the previous resident of 11 Downing Street back in September. Many news channels will have covered much […]

UK Manufacturing Output , September & 3rd Quarter 2022:  The manufacturing output data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows no change in September (compared to August) but the quarterly figure is -2.3% lower than in the 2nd period of the year.  In this note, we will focus mainly on the quarterly data with […]

European GDP, 3rd Quarter 2022:  The preliminary flash estimate of GDP published by Eurostat showed much slower growth than in the previous two quarters but, slightly surprisingly, it was still positive;  quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP for both the EU and the sub-set of the Euro-zone countries was +0.2%. This means that compared to a year […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, October 2022:  The results from the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) suggest that orders and output are still falling in the three months to October but that employment is still increasing despite the downturn in business and the fact that concerns over a shortage of skilled labour are at an […]

Jack Semple, Secretary of EAMA offers a round-up of what has happened in the past few days at Westminster in a combination of news and comment. Sunak has announced his new cabinet and those who will attend but are not full members.  There is a clear-out of many Johnson and Truss backers, although Therese Coffey […]

USMTO and CTMR, August 2022:  The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders in the US market, based on the reports from participants.  In the first 8 months of 2022, orders were running at +5.3% above the same months (January to August) last year. With IMTS occurring in September, there should be another boost […]

At the end of an historic week at Westminster, here are some highlights, with comment. Prime minister Liz Truss resigned on October 20th.  In a brief statement, she said that she had “set out a vision for a low tax, high growth economy – that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit.  I recognise […]

European Industrial Production, August 2022:  According to Eurostat, total industrial production in the EU was +1.1% higher than in July, with an increase of +1.5% for the Euro-zone.  This was not enough to reverse the falls that were recorded in July and industrial production has been varied since the post-pandemic bounce at the end of […]

UK Manufacturing Output , August 2022:  It is at this time of the year that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) rebases its data and although this year has not seen a change to the period (we are keeping on 2019 as the base year because of the distortions of the Covid pandemic on 2020), […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, September 2022:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for six sectors of the economy and then uses five of these (financial services is not part of the calculation) to make up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). After the more moderate fall in […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September 2022:  The CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) results continue to show a small fall in output in the 3 months to September (in practice, given the data collection dates, this is actually June, July and August) at broadly the same pace as in the previous month.  However, for the next three […]

UK Industrial Production, July 2022:  The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed manufacturing output unchanged from the level in June;  however, we prefer to focus on rolling 3-month periods as this smooths out some of the noise in the data and on this basis, output in the latest 3 months (May, June […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, August 2022:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for six sectors of the economy and then uses five of these (financial services is not part of the calculation) to make up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). The results for August saw another […]

Rosa Wilkinson, Director of Policy at the High Value Manufacturing Catapult and a Member of the MTA Board, notes that there are reports that Liz Truss will hold a ‘mini budget’ (a small fiscal event) sometime next week when Parliament is expected to return after the Queen’s funeral and before the party conference break. The […]

New Business and Energy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg is to review which companies should be prioritised for energy support, prime minister Liz Truss told the Commons.  Truss announced measures to contain energy costs for households and businesses, and to bring inflation down by five percentage points. An Energy Price Guarantee will mean “a typical household” will […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, August 2022: The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) show the first reduction in manufacturing output since the survey dated February 2021.  This survey, although dated August, really covers July and the three month period from May to July. The balance for the volume of output over the previous […]

USMTO and CTMR, June 2022:  The US Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) programme tracks orders in the US market, based on the reports from participants.  Although orders in June 2022 were down both the previous month and a year ago, for the 1st half of the year there is an increase of +13.1% compared to the […]

UK Manufacturing Output , June & 2nd Quarter 2022:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data for June shows a fall of -1.6% compared to May;  this almost reverses the strong growth (+1.7%) we saw in May.  It seems likely that this is at least influenced by the change in the Bank Holiday arrangements for […]

Posted by: IOE&IT STAFF Export Control Joint Unit announces new export control measures The UK government’s Export Control Joint Unit (ECJU) has confirmed that the use of EORI (Economic Operator Registration Identification) numbers will now be mandatory for licence registrations on SPIRE – the ECJU’s exporting licensing system for the control of military, paramilitary and […]

European GDP, 2nd Quarter 2022:  The preliminary flash estimate of GDP published by Eurostat showed an acceleration in growth in the Euro-zone which saw GDP +0.7% higher than in the 1st quarter, which in turn had seen growth of +0.5%.  The latest quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the EU as a whole was +0.6%, the […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July 2022:  The trends identified in the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) show an easing of manufacturing demand with output and orders slowing to post-lockdown lows;  however, both measures are still above their long-run average, so it is not all gloom.  Employment in the sector continued to rise although labour […]

Flash Manufacturing PMI, July 2022:  The initial estimate for the UK manufacturing sector shows the overall Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) still in expansion territory at 52.2, although this is the lowest reading for 25 months (June 2020).  However, the output element has slipped just below the crucial 50 level (at 49.7) and orders fell at […]

Jack Semple, Secretary of EAMA (of which MTA is a member) has reflected on the current political situation and notes that Kipling’s Kim said:  “Those who beg in silence, starve in silence.”  Therefore, now is a good time for the industry to raise its profile – to politicise manufacturing and advanced engineering, with a small […]

UK Manufacturing Output , May 2022:  The latest headline data for manufacturing output from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows month-on month growth of +1.4% with 12 of the 13 sub-sectors having output higher than in April.  This was led by growth in other manufacturing & repair and pharmaceuticals and the exception was in […]

Purchasing Managers’ Index for Manufacturing – update of June results:  We did not have the full range of data available for last week’s Friday Brief so, to round up the June Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, the Global Manufacturing PMI for June, compiled by J P Morgan using the data from S&P Global, fell to […]

Last week, MTA hosted the CECIMO General Assembly;  delegates from the machine tool industry across Europe took part in a range of policy discussions and together with eminent speakers from the political and business arena, European Machine Tool producers debated key sectoral issues such as digital transformation, supply chain disruptions, standardisation issues, and sustainability. The […]

The flash manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for June, published by S&P Global, fell in all of the countries that have this stage of reporting.  For the UK, the overall manufacturing PMI fell to 53.4 which is it lowest level since July 2020, the output element was down to 51.2 and the orders series […]

European Industrial Production, April 2022:  Data from Eurostat showed that total industrial production in the EU increased by +0.3% compared to March, with growth of +0.4% for the Euro-zone.  This small improvement followed a sharp fall for both areas in March.  Looking back 12 months, this means that industrial production in the EU is -0.5% […]

UK Manufacturing Output, April 2022:  Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that total manufacturing output fell by -1.0% in April although thanks to base effects, output in the latest 3 months (February, March and April 2022) was only -0.2% lower than in the previous 3 months (November and December 2021 and January […]

We would like to update you on some news regarding our Forecast Seminar coming up in October. A location has been confirmed, the event will be held at Yamazaki Mazak UK Ltd in Worcester. The programme will follow our usual structure of three presentations. Agenda 09:30 – 10:00 Registration 10:00 – 11:00 Global Macro-Economic Outlook – Ben May, […]

European Additive Manufacturing Survey, Spring 2022:  CECIMO has published the results of the Spring survey of the European market for Additive Manufacturing (AM).  This bi-annual survey covers machinery, products, materials and services in the AM sector and the UK element was carried out by MTA/AM-UK. The latest results pointed to strong growth expectations for both […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May 2022: The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) show an improvement in both output and orders growth in May – note that the data collection ran from 26th April to 12th May so this really refers to April (or the month before the date of the survey […]

UK Productivity, 1st Quarter 2022:  With data on wages and hours worked as part of the labour market release, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published its flash estimates of productivity for the start of 2022.  The headlines show that on the preferred measure – output per hour worked – productivity fell compared to the […]

European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator, Capacity Utilisation and Investment Survey, April 2022:  The European Commission (EC) draws from a range of surveys to construct confidence indicators for six sectors of the economy and then uses five of these (financial services is not used) make up its Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI).  The other point to note […]

The government has lifted all tariffs on goods from Ukraine, part of broad UK economic support, including £1bn in loan guarantees. Imposed on Russia is a new export ban on products and technology that “could be used to repress the people of Ukraine”.  That “could include interception and monitoring equipment”.  Import bans have been imposed […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, April 2022:  The results from the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) concluded that there has been a slowing in the rate of growth of output over the past 3 months but it remains above the long-run average level.  Output grew in 12 of the 17 industries in the ITS with […]

European Industrial Production, February 2022:  Figures released by Eurostat this week showed total industrial production in the Euro-zone was +0.7% higher than in January while the EU as a whole showed a rise of +0.6%.  This means that growth over the past 12 months (since February 2021) was +2.0% in the Euro-zone and +3.0% for […]

UK Manufacturing Output , February 2022:  The latest headline data for manufacturing output from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows a fall of -0.4% compared to January, driven mainly by a reduction of -9.4% in the automotive industry and -5.0% in the output of chemicals.  Manufacturing output in February was 99.3% of its pre-pandemic level […]

UK National Accounts (GDP and Investment), 4th Quarter 2021:  With the publication of the quarterly National Accounts by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the estimate for economic growth in the UK economy has been revised up to +1.3% compared to the previous quarter.  This uprating is largely due to a range of revisions across […]

CELIMO – the group of European associations representing importers and distributors of manufacturing technology – has released its State of Trade report along with a commentary;  this is summarised here but the full version is in the document attached below. There was a strong pace of GDP growth in most countries in 2021 although this […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March 2022:  Before we look at the latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) it is worth noting that although it is labelled as “March”, the data collection period ran from 24th February to 14th March.  This means that although it is one of the first surveys to have […]

Bank of England’s Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions – Q1-2022:  In conjunction with the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPS) this week, at which they voted 8-1 to increase the Bank Rate to 0.75%, the Bank of England has published the latest summary of business conditions collected by their Agents around the country.  This […]

New sanctions on Russia and Belarus New UK sanctions, announced today (Tuesday), will deny Russia and Belarus access to Most Favoured Nation tariffs for hundreds of their exports and ban UK exports of high-end luxury goods to both countries. The full press release can be viewed at https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-announces-new-economic-sanctions-against-russia. Among these sanctions is an increase in tariffs […]

UK Manufacturing Output , January 2022:  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the latest output data this morning and the headline shows an increase of +0.8% in total manufacturing output compared to December 2021.  However, this still leaves output of the sector -1.6% lower than its pre-pandemic level (February 2020).  The monthly data can […]

UK Trade, 4th Quarter 2021:  The year-end figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that total goods exports were +16.5% higher than in the 3rd quarter of the year while imports grew by +2.7%.  However, there was a significant change in the level of trade in non-monetary gold which distorts the picture;  excluding […]

European Industrial Production, December 2021:  Data published by Eurostat shows that seasonally adjusted total industrial production in the Euro-zone was +1.2% higher than in November, with the EU as a whole seeing growth of +0.7%.  For 2021, the annual average saw growth of +7.8% in the Euro-zone and +8.2% for the EU. Industrial production is dominated […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, February 2022:  The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) shows that while manufacturing activity improved in February (data collection from 26th January to 14th February), so did price pressures.  Total order books eased slightly from the level of the previous three months but remain at an historically high […]

A brief update on recent developments, with commentary.  As always, it does not aim to be comprehensive, rather to highlight important points. On manufacturing and advanced engineering, I suspect the government is facing growing frustration from outside and internal tensions: In The Times yesterday (February 17th), Dr Clive Hickman, in effect calls for a national […]

European Commission’s Economic Forecasts, Winter 2022:  The European Commission (EC) has published its latest quarterly forecast with GDP expected to grow by +4.0% for both the EU and the euro-zone in 2022, followed by +2.8% for the EU and +2.7% for the Euro-zone in 2023. The latest outlook reflects a number of challenges facing the […]

UK Manufacturing Output , December 2021:  Data released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that manufacturing output increased by +0.2% in December, but we will focus on the quarterly trends in this note.  This shows no change compared to the 3rd quarter although the level was +0.7% higher than in the […]

UK Interest Rate Increase and Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report:  The headline here is the decision by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to increase interest rates by 25 points to 0.5%.  This had been predicted and even the news that this was a close decision with a 5-4 vote was not […]

Are you interested in how research into social or economic science can produce actionable insights to help your business adapt to innovative digital technologies? InterAct is a new Made Smarter Innovation funded, ESRC-led network that aims to bring together economic and social scientists, UK manufacturers, and digital technology providers to address the human issues caused by the diffusion […]

UK National Accounts, 3rd Quarter 2021:  Just before Christmas, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the national accounts for the 3rd quarter of 2020.  At the whole economy level, the main interest in this is the revisions to the GDP data back to the start of 2020 which has meant an upward adjustment to […]

The government has announced the formation of an AI Standards Hub, with a pilot being led by the Alan Turing Institute supported by the British Standards Institution (BSI) and the National Physical Laboratory (NPI). As part of the UK’s national artificial intelligence strategy, the hub will aim to increase UK contribution to the development of […]

Qimtek Contract Manufacturing Index – 2021 Overview:  Qimtek is an independent network for the UK engineering and manufacturing industry that connects active buyers and suppliers.  By monitoring the purchasing budget of companies who are looking to outsource manufacturing, they can track activity in the sector. From this they calculate the Contract Manufacturing index (CMI) which […]

CBI Industrial Trends Survey, January 2022:  The latest results from the CBI Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) show that demand conditions are supporting a good level of activity in the sector but there is concern over labour shortages and cost/price pressures.  It is worth noting that although dated “January”, data collection took place from 20th December […]

UK Manufacturing Output , November 2021:  Data released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows that manufacturing output increased by +1.0% compared to October.  However, taking the rolling 3-month trend, output in the latest period (September, October and November 2021) was -0.1% lower than the previous 3 months (June, July and August 2021) […]

European Industrial Production, November 2021:  The data for Europe published by Eurostat covers industrial production;  most of this is manufacturing output but it also includes the extraction industries (mining & quarrying) and utilities (supply of electricity, gas & water).  The headline figures show an increase of +2.3% for the Euro-zone compared to October 2021, although […]