At the end of last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the December figures for manufacturing output; this showed an increase of +0.6% compared to November but the quarterly total showed a decline of -0.7% compared to the 3rd period of the year and output was -1.0% lower than in Q4-23. For 2024, manufacturing output was -0.7% lower than 2023.
This note will concentrate on the quarterly totals and the figures for 2024 as a whole but it is worth noting that the improvement in December, admittedly from a weak position over the previous 3 months, was led by “basic pharmaceutical products” (5.1%) and “machinery & equipment” (5.9%).
In the 4th quarter of 2024, 7 of the 13 main sub-sectors of manufacturing saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in output with the most significant negative contributions coming from the manufacture of transport equipment (-2.3%) and the manufacture of pharmaceuticals (-4.0%). The former of these was, as we reported a couple of weeks ago (see https://www.mta.org.uk/resources/uk-automotive-output-2024/), mainly the result of falling production in the automotive industry.
Turning to some of the detail behind the overall manufacturing data, output of the capital goods industries (the main sub-sectors for customers of MTA members) fell by -0.5% compared to the 3rd quarter and by -0.7% over the level of a year earlier (Q4-2023). However, the year as a whole saw capital goods output +0.7% higher in 2024 than it had been in 2023.
We get a slightly different picture at the industry level where output of the machinery (sometimes called mechanical engineering) industry grew by +0.7% in the 4th quarter, although it was still -2.8% lower than a year earlier and fell by -7.7% for the year (compared to 2023).
All 4 of our key industries have seen different patterns of growth and decline at the quarterly and annual levels in the latest data. As noted above, output of the automotive industry fell the most in Q4-24 with a decline of -3.4% compared to the previous quarter and -2.8% over the level of a year earlier. However, thanks to a strong start to 2024, the annual figures showed growth of +9.3% compared to 2023.
Similarly, output of metal products (a significant chunk of which is sub-contract machining activity for both cutting and forming of metal) fell by -1.1% on the quarter but in this case, it was still +0.5% higher than at the end of 2023 and, for the year overall showed growth of +3.8%.
Finally, the aerospace industry saw a quarter-on-quarter fall in output of -0.3%; this level was -5.2% down on the position in the 4th quarter of 2023 and the trend for the calendar year was also negative at -3.4%.
You can download the ONS Statistical Bulletin from their website at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (13 February) or request it from MTA; we also have an analysis of the key industries which is available to members – please contact Geoff Noon (gnoon@mta.org.uk) if you would like these charts.