Due to our schedule and public holidays around the world, we only have some of the data for the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for October so we will update this report next week. The UK creates the headlines this month, slipping to 49.9, just under the key threshold of 50 for the first time since April.
The manufacturing PMI for the UK surprised this month with a final reading of 49.9; the flash estimate of 50.3 last week had already signalled a weakening in the PMI but the final figure, taking us into negative territory, was still a surprise. All of the data collection took place before the Budget this week. The main driver of this were negative reports for new orders and stocks of purchased components but employment (which often lags the other indicators, especially at turning points) increased.
Output levels continue to grow but at a more moderate rate than in September, with the Investment and Consumer Goods groups seeing growth that outweighed a significant fall for Intermediate Goods. For orders, there is a suggestion that some customers were waiting to see the outcome of the Budget Statement at the end of the month, so it will be interesting to see how this moves in November. Suppliers’ delivery times extended for the 10th month is a row, mainly due to shipping delays but capacity shortages at vendors was also mentioned.
Due to public holidays we only have the October figures for the smaller Euro-zone countries with data for France, Germany, Italy and Spain not out until Monday, although we do have the flash indicator for the first two of these and the Euro-zone overall. The manufacturing PMI for Ireland moved back above 50 and at 51.5 registered their best reading since February but there was a decline in the already negative readings for Austria and the Netherlands. The flash release showed an improvement in Germany (and, therefore the Euro-zone overall) but this follows an exceptionally low reading in September.
Similarly, we don’t have all of the October figures for the other EU countries but Czechia, Romania and Sweden all saw an improvement compared to September, although only the last of these has a reading above the key threshold of 50.
Outside the EU, there was no change for Switzerland which, at 49.9, is stubbornly just in negative territory. Turkiye saw a small improvement by only to 45.8, while Kazakhstan slipped back to 51.7 while remaining positive.
The Chinese manufacturing PMI has been see-sawing around 50 over the past few months and for October is back above 50, while Taiwan saw its positive reading eroded to sit only just above this threshold. Japan’s figure slipped to a slightly more negative level than in September and their lowest since March with Australia moving in the opposite direction but still well below 50; South Korea was unchanged at 48.3. India is one of the countries whose October figures are not published until Monday, although their flash estimate showed a modest strengthening from the already high levels and it seem likely that they will continue to be the strongest performer.
Due to publishing schedules, we don’t yet have any figures for the Americas but they will all be out later today.
The individual S&P Global PMI reports are available to download on their website at https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases but we also have a summary charts report which is available to download below. You should note that the PMI readings for Hungary, Sweden and Switzerland are not compiled by S&P Global but can be found with an appropriate internet search (it also means that they are not part of the global PMI calculation).