The ONS uses the output data to produce the monthly estimate of GDP for the UK economy and August saw modest growth of +0.2%, following two months of “no change” in the economy. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by +0.2% in the 3 months to August 2024 compared with the equivalent period to May 2024.
As a result of the re-basing of the data series to 2022 and more data being available, although the growth rates for June and July were unchanged (at zero), growth in May has been revised down to +0.2% (from +0.4%), with changes also noted for March (now +0.5% from +0.4%) and April (-0.1% from zero).
We have already covered the growth in manufacturing in August but there were also month-on-month increases in construction (+0.4%) and the service sector (+0.1%). For construction, output is estimated to have grown by +1.0% in the latest three months; this is entirely down to new work which expanded by +1.7% (led by work on infrastructure) while there was no change in output of repair & maintenance activity (although non-housing R&M did grow strongly).
For the service sector, the month-on-month growth rate meant that activity is also estimated to have expanded by +0.1% in the latest 3-month period compared to the months up to May, with output increasing in 7 of the 14 sub-sectors. The largest contribution to this growth came from “professional, scientific & technical activities” (+0.8%), with “information & communication” at +0.9% also making a significant contribution. The largest negative element over the 3 months to August 2024 was from “human health & social work activities” (down by -1.1%).
Output of consumer-facing services rose by +0.1% in the 3 months to August 2024; here, the largest positive contribution came from growth of +1.2% in the “retail trade, except of motor vehicles & motorcycles” industry, while the largest negative contribution was a decline of -3.7% for “other personal service activities”.
There are more details in the range of ONS Statistical Bulletins which can be downloaded from their website at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (11 October) or on request from MTA.