Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that manufacturing output in August was +1.1% higher than in July; however, we prefer to focus on the 3-month moving average and this showed an increase of +0.5% compared to the previous period but was down by -1.5% on the same months in 2023.
As with the National Accounts data that we reported last week, the manufacturing output figures from the ONS have been revised and re-based to 2022. In this note, we will usually focus on 3-month blocks of time; the latest period is June, July and August 2024, the previous period is March, April and May 2024 and a “year ago” is June, July and August 2023.
At the first level of disaggregation, output of the capital goods industries grew by +0.1% in the latest 3 months against the previous period but contracted by -2.3% over a year earlier. Output of this sub-sector in August 2024 was at 99.2% of its pre-pandemic level (which in the monthly series is taken to have been February 2020 although it was not always the peak level before Covid struck).
At the industry level, the automotive industry has been quite volatile recently; the net effect of this is that output has fallen by -0.3% compared to the previous period but is +3.7% higher than a year ago. The August figure is 114.7% of the pre-pandemic level, the only one of “our” industries in this situation.
In contrast, the aerospace industry is on a run of 9 consecutive months of a gradual decline in output which means that the latest 3 months is -2.2% lower than in the previous period and -4.7% down on a year ago; the August output level is 80.1% of its pre-pandemic level.
The machinery industries have also seen a mixed set of results recently and although this means that output in the latest 3 months is +0.7% higher than in the previous period, it is down by -8.4% compared to a year ago. Output in August is 95.0% of its pre-pandemic level.
Finally, the strongest of our key customer industries at the moment is metal products where output is up by +3.5% compared to the previous period and by +7.9% over a year earlier. However, despite this, the August figure is still below the pre-pandemic level at 97.8%.
You can download the ONS Statistical Bulletin from their website at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (11 October) or request it from MTA; we also have an analysis of the key industries which is available to members – please contact Geoff Noon ([email protected]) if you would like these charts.