The ONS uses the output data to produce the monthly estimate of GDP for the UK economy – overall, July is estimated to be the 2nd consecutive month of no change in output. As well as manufacturing, output fell in July for the construction sector and these combined to balance a small increase for the service sector. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the 3 months to July 2024 compared with the period to April 2024.
We have already looked at the detail for manufacturing so this note will cover the other two major sectors of the economy. Construction output fell by -0.4% in July, largely reversing the +0.5% growth recorded in June; however, the 3-month rolling trend shows an increase in output of +1.2% for this sector. In the 3 months to July, both new work (+1.6%) and repair & maintenance activity (+0.8%) increased; the former was led by an increase of +6.4% in public new work, while the latter was mainly driven by growth of +4.8% in non-housing repair & maintenance.
Turning to the service sector, despite growth of just +0.1% in July, output increased by +0.6% in the latest 3-month period, with growth in 11 of the 14 sub-sections of this sector. Professional, scientific & technical activities made the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this 3-month period with growth of +2.0%; within this group, the main drivers were legal activities and scientific research & development. Interestingly, while it was the largest contributor to service sector growth in the latest 3 months, this group of industries had the most negative contribution to the trend for July.
Similarly, the impact of consumer-facing services differs between the monthly and 3-month comparisons. For July, output in this group of services grew by +0.3%, faster than for the service sector overall, but looking at the change in the 3 months ending in July (and compared to the equivalent period up to April), output of consumer-facing services only grew by +0.1%.
There are more details in the range of ONS Statistical Bulletins which can be downloaded from their website at https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar (11 September) or on request from MTA.