In the second release of data for GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2024, Eurostat has confirmed its previous estimate of growth of +0.3% for both the Euro-zone and the EU overall. While the annualized rate of growth for the Euro-zone is unchanged at +0.6%, the estimate for the EU has been upgraded slightly to +0.8% (+0.7% in the first flash estimate).
These latest figures for the 2nd quarter show both the Euro-zone and the EU growing at the same quarter-on-quarter pace as in the 1st period of the year. The annualized rate has picked up marginally, reflecting the fact that the relatively weak Q2-23 drops out of the “annual” figures in the latest calculation.
Compared to the initial release a couple of weeks ago, we now have data for more countries, with 22 of the Member States having released their Q2-24 figures. This revision shows that four of them – Germany, Hungary, Latvia and Sweden – saw their economy shrink compared to the previous quarter, with Austria seeing no change. All of those with a negative trend for Q2 had some growth in the 1st quarter, so no-one currently meets the two consecutive negative quarters definition of a recession.
However, if we look at the annualised rate of growth (comparing Q2-24 with Q2-23), there are 5 EU Member States whose economy has contracted – Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland and Latvia – and two more (Austria and Sweden) where the level is unchanged.
You can get the Eurostat figures from their website at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators (14 August) or request it from MTA.